आज (04 नवंबर को) शेयर मार्केट फिर से क्यों गिरा? – क्या आगे और भी गिरेगा?

Aaj Share Market Itna Kyon Gira? 😮

Aaj ke din investors ke liye share market mein giravat ek badi chinta ka vishay bani hui hai.

Pichhle 1 mahine mein share market mein lagbhag 40 lakh karod ka nuksan ho chuka hai, aur Sensex aur Nifty ne apni value mein 6500 aur 2100 points ki badi giravat dekhi hai.

Is giravat ka asar sirf bade index par nahi, balki lagbhag sabhi sectors mein dekhne ko mil raha hai.

Chaliye samajhte hain ki aakhir is giravat ke pichhe kaunse bade karan hain jo abhi hamare share market ko itna prabhavit kar rahe hain.

1. FIIs ki Tezi se Selling – Share Market par Bada Pressure 🏦

Pichhle kuch mahino se Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), jo ki videshi niveshak hain, lagatar apne Indian stocks bech rahe hain. Ab aap sochenge ki yeh kyon ho raha hai? Aayiye, iske pichhe ke kuch bade karanon ko detail mein samjhte hain.

FII Investment ka important aur Unki Bechne ki Wajah 🤔

• Hamara Indian stock market lagbhag 18% FIIs par dependent hai, jo videshi paisa yahaan invest karte hain.
• Yeh 18% ke aas-paas ka hissa lagbhag 100 lakh karod ke barabar hai, jo kaafi bada hai.
• FIIs ne pichhle ek mahine mein apne bohot bade stake ko nikalna shuru kar diya hai, aur yeh lagbhag lakh karod ke barabar hai! 👀

FIIs ne Apne Paisa nikaalne ke Pichhe ka Reason:

1. US Election Mein Uncertainty 🇺🇸 – FIIs ko abhi US election ki wajah se uncertainty ka samna karna pad raha hai. Election ke result ke saath ye nahi pata ki wahan ki economy ka future kaise hoga, isliye FIIs abhi apna paisa nikaal rahe hain aur invest karne ke liye kisi aur stabil market ka intezaar kar rahe hain.

2. China ke Stimulus Packages 🇨🇳 – China ne abhi apni economy ko boost dene ke liye naye stimulus package ka announcement kiya hai. FIIs ko lagta hai ki ab wahan naye opportunities hain aur unka return bhi improve ho sakta hai. Isliye FIIs abhi India se paisa nikaal kar China mein invest kar rahe hain jahan unhe valuation better lag raha hai.

3. High Valuation aur Profit Booking 📉 – Indian stock market abhi high valuation par trade ho raha hai, aur FIIs ko yeh lagta hai ki yahaan profit booking ka samay aa chuka hai. Yaani, FIIs apne investments ko yahan se nikaal kar profit book karna chahte hain taaki wo aur zyda loss ke shikaar na hoon.

Pichhle Ek Mahine mein Market ka Girna – Sector Wise Giravat 📉

Ek mahine mein lagbhag har sector mein giravat dekhi gayi hai:

• Sensex aur Nifty mein 8% tak giravat
• Bank Nifty mein 7%
• Midcap mein 9% aur Small Cap mein 8%
• Auto Index mein 14%, Capital Goods mein 13%, aur FMCG mein 11%
• Finance sector mein 6%,
• IT sector mein 3%,
• Pharma mein 5%
• aur Retail mein 2.5%

Pichhle Badi Giravatein aur Aaj ka Scene 🔍

Humein yaad hai ki 4 June 2024 ko election ke din market 6% gira tha, jismein investors ko 31 lakh karod ka nuksan hua tha.

Isi tarah 23 March 2020 ko COVID ke waqt Nifty 13% gira tha jismein 14 lakh karod ka nuksan tha. Aaj ki giravat mein valuation aur capital invested kaafi zyada hone ke karan nuksan bhi kaafi bada ho raha hai, jo is saal 2024 ka sabse bada fall hai.

2. Q2 Results Ka Kharab Aana 📉

Share market ke girne ka doosra bada wajah hai ki abhi Q2 ke results bade disappointing aa rahe hain.

Aksar jab bade companies ke quarterly results aate hain, to yeh ek important indicator hote hain ki market kahan ja sakta hai.

Lekin is baar kai badi-badi companies ke Q2 results umeed ke bilkul vipreet aaye hain, jisse investors mein niraasha aur chinta badh gayi hai. 😓

Kaunse Companies ke Results Ne Niraasha Di? 🏢

Yeh raha kuch badi companies ka zikr jinke results ne investors ko hairaan kar diya hai:

D-Mart – Yeh retail giant jo humesha apne growth aur profits ke liye jaana jaata tha, is baar expectations par khara nahi utar paya. Sales aur profit margins mein bhi kami dekhi gayi hai, jo investors ko bechain kar rahi hai.

TCS aur Bajaj Auto – IT aur auto sectors mein bhi is baar expected growth nahi hui, aur TCS ka profit aur Bajaj Auto ki sales growth neeche chali gayi hai.

Reliance Industries – Reliance jaise diversified company ka performance bhi ummeed se neeche raha, jo ki Indian economy mein ek badi baat hai.

Kotak Mahindra Bank aur Tata Consumer – Banking aur consumer sectors ki yeh companies bhi apne Q2 mein kuch khaas perform nahi kar payi.

In sabhi results ka seedha asar overall investor sentiment par pada hai, jisse market par aur bhi pressure bana hai. Jab badi companies ke profits girte hain to investors ka bharosa bhi kam ho jata hai aur is wajah se market mein girawat aur badh jati hai. 📉

3. Market ka High Valuation aur Correction Phase 🧾

Teesra karan hai high valuation ka, jo hamesha ek risky situation hoti hai. Pichhle ek saal mein hamare stock market, khaaskar small aur midcap stocks, mein kaafi rally hui thi. Kai stocks 100 ke PE ratio tak pahunch gaye the, jo ki kaafi overvalued mana jata hai. 😮

Rally ke Baad Correction ka Ana Zaroori Hota Hai 📊

Jab kisi stock ya sector mein overvaluation ho jata hai, to correction phase zaroor aata hai, jismein stocks apni asli value par lautne lagte hain.

Market ka high valuation hamare share prices ko artificially badhawa de deta hai, lekin jab yeh bubble phatne lagta hai, to market mein girawat aur badi ho jati hai.

Is baar small aur midcap stocks mein jo girawat ho rahi hai, wo isi correction ka hissa hai. Is correction ka asar Sensex aur Nifty par bhi pada hai, jisse overall market mein panic bada hai.

Investors ke Liye Warning 🚨

High valuation ke chalte investors ne ab yeh samajh liya hai ki rally ke baad correction aana tay hai. Ab woh high-value stocks mein aur paisa nahi lagana chahte aur unmein se kai investors apne holdings sell karne lagte hain. Yeh situation market ke girne ka ek aur bada reason hai.

4. Retail Investors aur HNIs mein Dar ka Mahaul 😰

Chautha aur sabse ahem karan hai retail investors aur high-net-worth individuals (HNI) ke beech dar ka mahaul. Jab market girne lagta hai to aksar investors mein panic ka mahaul ho jata hai, aur yeh situation abhi bhi bani hui hai.

“Bandwagon Effect” Ka Prabhav 🚂

Retail investors aur HNIs jab market ko girta dekhte hain to dar ke karan apne stocks jaldi bechne lagte hain.

Dar ka ye mahaul ek tarah ka “bandwagon effect” create karta hai – ek investor ko stocks bechta dekh dusra bhi wahi karta hai, aur aise mein market aur tezi se neeche girta hai.

Apna Nuksan Kam Karne Ki Koshish 🙅‍♂️

Har investor ko lagta hai ki agar unhone abhi stocks bech diye to wo aur bade nuksan se bach sakte hain.

Lekin jab sab ek hi waqt par apne holdings nikaalne lagte hain, to market aur bhi weak ho jata hai aur is dar ke environment mein girawat aur tez ho jati hai.

Is waqt market mein wahi situation hai, jisme investors loss se bachne ke liye stocks ko jaldi nikaal rahe hain, jo overall share prices ko neeche kheench rahi hai.

Yeh sabhi karan mil kar market mein abhi girawat ko aur bhi bada rahe hain. Hope yeh sabhi poins aapko samajhne mein madad karege ki abhi share market kyon gir raha hai.

Aayein, ab yeh samajhte hain ki aane wale waqt mein share market kaisa perform kar sakta hai aur is samay investors ko kya strategy apnani chahiye.

Aane Wale Samay Mein Market Performance Ka Andazaa 📊

1. America ka Election Result aur Uska Impact 🇺🇸

Aane wale dinon mein America ka election result sabke samne hoga, aur yeh market ki direction mein ek bada role nibha sakta hai.

Election ke result par depend karega ki America mein nayi policies kaisi hongi, jo directly FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) ke sentiments ko prabhavit karegi.

Agar result market ke expectations ke mutabik aata hai to market mein recovery ho sakti hai aur humein reversal dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Iska matlab hai ki market ki jo girawat hai, wo ruk sakti hai aur nayi rally ki shuruaat ho sakti hai. ✅

2. February mein Indian Budget aur Market Reaction 📅

Jis tarah se February mein India ka Union Budget aayega, uspar bhi market kaafi focus karega.

Budget ke announcements, tax policies, aur infrastructure ke liye kiye gaye investments, in sabka seedha asar market par padega.

Kayi experts ka maanna hai ki February ke baad market mein ek acchi khasi recovery dekhne ko mil sakti hai.

Lekin tab tak kaafi volatile phase rehne ki sambhavnayein hain. Market mein ups and downs ka silsila lagatar bana reh sakta hai. ⚖️

Aapko Kya Karna Chahiye? Investor ke Liye Strategy 📈

Ab hamen ye samajhna zaroori hai ki correction ek natural process hai, aur jab bhi market mein correction hota hai, to yeh darne ka samay nahi hota, balki ek opportunity hoti hai. Correction ke time par kuch important points hain jo investors ko yaad rakhne chahiyein:

1. Correction Ko Samjhein Aur Patience Rakhein 🕰️

Market mein 10% tak ki girawat ko correction kahte hain, jabki 5% tak ke uchhal ko pullback kahte hain. Aur agar market 20% gir jaye to usse bear market kaha jata hai.

Isliye, agar aap pehle se invested hain, to patience rakhna bahut zaroori hai. Har girawat ke baad ek bounce aata hai, aur market apne support level par pahunch kar reversal bhi kar sakta hai.

2. Panic Selling Se Bachhein ❌

Ye time panic selling karne ka nahi hai. Roj apne portfolio ko dekh kar stress lena bhi sahi nahi hai, kyunki ye sirf short-term losses ki wajah se hota hai.

Experts ka kehna hai ki jab market bottom-out ya support level par ho, tab fresh buying karna ek acchi strategy hoti hai. Yaani, apne stocks mein average karna ya naye stocks lene ka mauka ho sakta hai.

3. Portfolio ko Diversify Karein 🔄

Is girawat ke waqt apne portfolio ko diversify karna ek samajhdari bhari approach hai.

Is samay aap different sectors mein invest karke risk ko thoda reduce kar sakte hain aur future growth ke liye position bana sakte hain.

• Jaise ki, agar aapke portfolio mein sirf IT stocks hain, to thoda FMCG, Pharma ya Finance mein bhi diversify kar sakte hain.

Kuch Important Data Investors Ke Liye 🔍

• Nifty 50 ne pichhle 16 salon mein lagbhag 19 baar 10% tak ka correction dekha hai, jo ye batata hai ki correction ek aam baat hai.
• Agar hum bear market ki baat karein (20% se jyada ki girawat), to yeh sirf 8 baar hua hai, jo ki relatively kam hai.
• Average 8 mahine lagte hain market ko bottom-out hone mein. Yaani, apne lowest level tak pohonchne mein market ko itna time lagta hai.
• Lekin bottom ke baad recovery kaafi fast hoti hai aur kaafi shandar bhi hoti hai. Iska ek behtareen example hai Covid ke time ki recovery, jo hamen sabko yaad hai.

Yaani, agar aap long-term ke investor hain to patience aur diversification ke saath rehna hi ek acchi strategy hai. Market mein girawat ke baad aane wali recovery aksar shandar hoti hai aur is dauran invest kiya hua paisa future mein achha return de sakta hai. 📈💪

Conclusion: Aane wale samay mein volatility kaafi reh sakti hai, lekin yeh girawat long-term investors ke liye ek mauka hai apne portfolio ko strong aur diversified banane ka. Election ke result aur budget ke baad market mein recovery ka potential hai, lekin tab tak patience aur discipline hi aapka sabse bada saathi hai. 😊